Fed’s new economic forecast paints brighter picture of growth and employment for rest of year
Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, On Wednesday May 19, 2010, 3:08 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve officials have a slightly brighter view of the economy than they did at the start of the year.
Fed officials say in an updated forecast that they think the economy can grow between 3.2 percent and 3.7 percent this year. That’s an upward revision from a growth range of 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent in their January forecast.
The Fed’s latest forecast sees the unemployment rate, now at 9.9 percent, dipping to between 9.1 percent and 9.5 percent by year’s end. In the January forecast, the Fed didn’t think unemployment would dip below 9.5 percent this year. The Fed prepared the latest forecast for its late-April meeting.
The Fed predicts an inflation gauge tied to consumer spending — excluding volatile food and energy costs — will rise just 0.9 percent to 1.2 percent this year. In January, the officials forecast an increase in prices of 1.1 percent to 1.7 percent.
The Fed’s updated outlook was prepared at its last meeting, April 27-28, and released Wednesday. It’s roughly in line with an Associated Press survey of leading economists done about a month earlier. According to the AP’s survey, the economy will grow 3 percent this year, and the unemployment rate will inch down to 9.3 percent by year’s end.
The Fed’s new outlook represents the middle range of forecasts of officials on the Federal Open Market Committee. That’s the group of Fed board members and central bank presidents who meet eight times a year to set interest rates.
At four of those meetings, including the April session, the central bank updates its economic outlook.
The Fed left its forecasts for next year and 2011 and the longer-run expectations mainly unchanged from January.
The Fed described the changes in economic growth in 2010 as a “modest” upward revision. The minutes said the figures available for the April meeting on consumer spending and business outlays were “broadly consistent with a moderate pace of economic recovery.”
But the Fed stressed that the economic recovery is expected to remain moderate, with the unemployment rate falling only gradually.
“Participants continued to expect the pace of the economic recovery to be restrained by household and business uncertainty, only gradual improvement in labor market conditions and slow easing of credit conditions in the banking sector,” the Fed minutes said.