Water
NWPX – Pipes
CCC – Purification
INSU – Pipe rehab
LNN – Irrigation for Agriculture
Oil & Gas
CLR – Bakken
KOG – Bakken
ENB – Canadian oil pipeline
NGS – Nat Gas Service Equip (non-conventional production)
SGY – US Oil & Gas Producer
XTO – Oil & Gas Producer
CRZO – Barnett Shale
ATW – Deep water driller
RIG – Deep water driller
PBR – Brazilian Oil Producer
Agriculture/Commodities
MEA – Scrap Metal Recycler
TWI – Ag Equipment
MOS – Fertilizer
POT – Fertilizer
MTL – Russian Mining/Steel
Brazilian Banks (Brazil’s credit rating just raised to investment grade)
ITU
UBB
BBD
Others
ELMG – Wireless Communications/Defense (excellent weekly chart)
VISN – Chinese Mass Transit Ads (IPO off to a very strong start on major growth)
WGOV – Turbine and Electrical Controls for Alternative Energy Generation via Wind/Steam
One month returns:
NWPX – Pipes +4.11%
CCC – Purification +13.15%
INSU – Pipe rehab -1.25%
LNN – Irrigation for Agriculture +13.85%
CLR – Bakken +44%
KOG – Bakken +16.72%
ENB – Canadian oil pipeline +5.46%
NGS – Nat Gas Service Equip (non-conventional production) +21%
SGY – US Oil & Gas Producer -1.81%
XTO – Oil & Gas Producer +4.08%
CRZO – Barnett Shale +6.07%
ATW – Deep water driller +2.73%
RIG – Deep water driller -6.32%
PBR – Brazilian Oil Producer +9.29%
MEA – Scrap Metal Recycler +7.59%
TWI – Ag Equipment +11.11%
MOS – Fertilizer +13.33%
POT – Fertilizer +12.58%
MTL – Russian Mining/Steel +4.73%
ITU – Brazilian Bank +2.44%
UBB – Brazilian Bank -4.54%
BBD – Brazilian Bank -1.72%
ELMG – Wireless Communications/Defense -8.87%
VISN – Chinese Mass Transit Ads +1.2%
WGOV – Turbine and Electrical Controls for Generation via Wind/Steam +15.70%
If you haven’t already, cut ELMG from this group. The action this month has totally destroyed the weekly chart setup and it just gave up daily chart final support in the last two days. We’ll take the -18.5% pounding and throw in the towel.
We’ll take some profits here. Long term holders or those with large positions may want to hold some open as there is a good chance we will come back to these again later.
NWPX +18.8%
CLR +30.2%
KOG +36.5%
WGOV +14.8%
For those looking to add positions consider:
Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN
Oil & Gas – ATW, PBR, RIG
Ag/Commodity – MEA, MTL
Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB
China (Olympics) – VISN
Ok, time to take some more profits. I reluctantly suggest booking the following:
ATW +20.4%
NGS +16.8%
MEA + 27.9%
All great charts that may go much higher yet; but I’ll be patient and take the lower risk gains for now. As before, long term holders or those with large positions may want to hold some of the positions open as there is a very good chance we will come back to these again later.
For those looking to add positions consider:
Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN
Oil & Gas – PBR, RIG
Ag/Commodity – MOS, MTL
Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB
China (Olympics) – VISN
Ok, time for a new Bakken play. For all you Cra-maniacs, I’m jumping on the NOG train. We’ve got an opener at $12. Would love to pick some up under $9.
NOG – Bakken
For those looking to add positions consider:
Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN
Oil & Gas – CRZO, ENB, PBR, RIG, XTO
Ag/Commodity – MOS, MTL, POT
Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB
China (Olympics) – VISN
Ok, it’s beta time.
For those looking to add positions consider:
Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN
Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB
China (Olympics) – VISN
Alternative Energy – WGOV
Accumulate on weakness:
Oil & Gas – ATW, CRZO, ENB, PBR, RIG, SGY, XTO
Ag/Commodity – MEA, MOS, MTL, POT, TWI (having a great week!)
House cleaning time.
Taking a few more profits.
TWI +7.5%
WGOV (again) +26.1%
And trimming the energy exposure with a few losses.
CRZO -20.4%
XTO -22.4%
We still like all of these stocks.
Not being greedy with the profits.
Surprised by the rapid deterioration in energy stocks.
Looks like we missed one yesterday.
MTL -30.0% (including dividend)
Trim one more energy play at just about flat.
ENB +1.4% (including dividend)
Taking some more profits.
VISN +34.2%
Adding to the NOG position here under $9 as suggested above.
Cost basis now under $10.
Adding a few new agriculture picks.
Ag/Commodity – CF, IPI, MON, SQM
Stop loss on another energy play.
SGY -30.2%
We’ll take some more profits here.
CCC +13.2%
We’ll also drop another one at flat.
INSU -0.8%
Long term holders or those with large positions may want to hold some open as there is a good chance we will come back to these again later.
Dropping a Brazilian bank on stop loss.
BBD -20.8%
Dropping a few of the Ag plays on weakness.
MON -2.5%
SQM -2.4%
Cut a water play on stop loss.
LNN -25.1% (including dividends)
Giving back some gains on this one.
MEA -16.1%
More oil plays stop out.
NOG -31.6%
PBR -25.2%
RIG -22.9%
More Ag plays stop out.
IPI -25.2%
MOS -27.5% (including dividend)
POT -22.2% (including dividend)
Brazilian bank stops out.
UBB -21.3%
Another Brazilian bank stops out.
ITU -19.9% (after split, including dividends)
The last Ag play stops out.
CF -28.4%
Really disappointing finish here, especially with the great opening first month. The meltdown in energy and commodity stocks was unexpected and vicious. We left many profits on the table.
Overall we were down just over 5% before commissions for the four months. The S&P 500 dropped over 11% during this time. Even with the losses in the end, we were able to beat the S&P 500 by over two to one. It helps when you make almost 7.5% in the first four weeks and book an average gain over 18% on your first 8 closed trades.
A shorter holding time, as we use in the Security Growth Alert, would have helped this set of trades immensely. We were looking to develop a longer holding period portfolio here, but the market did not cooperate. This is not an investor’s market as the hyperactivity only leaves small windows of profit for the most agile of traders.