The Significance of the 400 day (80 week) moving average

Once the 80 week fell late in 2000, it was quickly tested from below twice, but never overtaken until the bear was dead.

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For the prior 20 years up to 2000, the 80 week was a great support level. It was only broken significantly in 1981, 1987 and 1990.

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This level has also provided solid support since 2003 when it was overtaken, declaring the bear dead. Now we have another significant break with what so far looks like a test of resistance from below. Until this level is left behind, the smart trade is to buy fear only and fade greed, especially in the area of the 80 week moving average. It only helps that this is also the site of the 50% retrace from the recent high to the low.

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