RYH +6%

IXJ -2%

JJA -15%

KOL +24%

GAZ -64%

JJS +6%

NIB +21%

Average: -3%

S&P 500: -22%

Natural Gas is a big surprise and really weighs down the average. The initial timing on the commodity plays was pretty bad, but adding more on weakness helped. Healthcare shows why it is a defensive sector by leading the market in a time of weakness. The Soft Commodity ETNs boosted the returns with JJS and NIB only being bested by the roller coaster ride of KOL in overall return, while suffering the smallest drawdowns, even less than Healthcare.

http://northcoastinvestmentresearch.wordpress.com/2009/07/28/a-few-etfetn-picks-one-year-later/

I was thinking of using “Bobcat” but I thought that may be a bit industry specific. Does anyone even use a “backhoe” anymore?

Keep reading, it’s a great time to be in the market.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to meet March 15 in Vienna, and some of the group’s leaders have said a production cut is likely.

Sorry. I do not have any direct contacts in the field for these details.

Try this site http://www.rigzone.com/data/dayrates/

If the information is not posted in as much detail as you require, contact them and ask for assistance.

I agree with your assessment. Join the herd or get trampled. If you’re not actively managing your investments in this time of manipulation, you will be left out.

I have been kicking around a book idea in my head entitled “The Great Swindle”. It’s about how govt. convinces the people they are wealthier than they are, so govt. can tax and inflate their savings away. Everyone knows the best way to get elected is to give something to someone. The only gift to give is something you take from someone else. With no hard money standard and no protection against the influence of money in politics, we are doomed.

The most common loan modifications are listed below:

lowering the mortgage interest rate
reducing the mortgage principal balance
fixing adjustable interest rates within the mortgage
increasing the loan term throughout the mortgage
forgiveness of payment defaults and fees
or any combination of the above

Check out this Public site at http://mortgagemodificationinfo.org

Thanks for commenting. I believe you are correct. This fund, like so much other paper, is not an end of world hedge. I would hold real coins, including gold, for something to save you in a meltdown. From the FXE prospectus:

The Deposit Accounts are not entitled to payment at any office of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. located in the United States.

The federal laws of the United States prohibit banks located in the United States from paying interest on unrestricted demand deposit accounts. Therefore, payments out of the Deposit Accounts will be payable only at the London branch of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., located in England. The Trustee will not be entitled to demand payment of these accounts at any office of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. that is located in the United States. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. will not be required to repay the deposit if its London branch cannot repay the deposit due to an act of war, insurrection or civil strife or an action by a foreign government or instrumentality (whether de jure or de facto) in England.

Shareholders do not have the protections associated with ownership of a demand deposit account insured in the United States by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation nor the full protection provided for bank deposits under English law.

Neither the Shares nor the Deposit Accounts and the euro deposited in them are a deposit insured against loss by the FDIC or any other federal agency. Deposits may have only limited protection under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme of England.

Euro deposited in the Deposit Accounts by an Authorized Participant are commingled with euro deposited by other Authorized Participants and are held by the Depository in either the primary deposit account or the secondary deposit account of the Trust. Euro held in the Deposit Accounts are not segregated from the Depository’s other assets. If the Depository becomes insolvent, then its assets might not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant. In addition, in the event of the insolvency of the Depository or the U.S. bank of which it is a branch, there may be a delay and costs incurred in recovering the euro held in the Deposit Accounts.

The Trust has no proprietary rights in or to any specific euro held by the Depository and will be an unsecured creditor of the Depository with respect to the euro held in the Deposit Accounts in the event of the insolvency of the Depository or the U.S. bank of which it is a branch. In the event the Depository or the U.S. bank of which it is a branch becomes insolvent, the Depository’s assets might not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant for the amount of euro deposited by the Trust or the Authorized Participant, in such event, the Trust and any Authorized Participant will generally have no right in or to assets other than those of the Depository.

In the case of insolvency of the Depository or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., the U.S. bank of which the Depository is a branch, a liquidator may seek to freeze access to the euro held in all accounts by the Depository, including the Deposit Accounts. The Trust and the Authorized Participants could incur expenses and delays in connection with asserting their claims. These problems would be exacerbated by the reality that the Deposit Accounts will not be held in the U.S. but instead will be held at the London branch of a U.S. national bank, where it will be subject to English insolvency law. Further, under U.S. law, in the case of the insolvency of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., the claims of creditors in respect of accounts (such as the Trust’s Deposit Accounts) that are maintained with an overseas branch of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. will be subordinate to claims of creditors in respect of accounts maintained with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. in the U.S., greatly increasing the risk that the Trust and the Trust’s beneficiaries would suffer a loss.

Shareholders do not have the protections associated with ownership of shares in an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act.

The Investment Company Act is designed to protect investors by preventing: insiders from managing investment companies to their benefit and to the detriment of public investors; the issuance of securities having inequitable or discriminatory provisions; the management of investment companies by irresponsible persons; the use of unsound or misleading methods of computing earnings and asset value; changes in the character of investment companies without the consent of investors; and investment companies from engaging in excessive leveraging. To accomplish these ends, the Investment Company Act requires the safekeeping and proper valuation of fund assets, restricts greatly transactions with affiliates, limits leveraging, and imposes governance requirements as a check on fund management. The Investment Company Act applies to a range of investment company structures, but, in practice, primarily regulates a company holding a portfolio of investment securities such as publicly traded stocks, bonds and money market instruments: selected by an affiliated investment adviser pursuant to the company’s stated investment objectives, policies, restrictions, strategies and techniques where the investment adviser manages the portfolio and otherwise operates the company on a day-to-day basis for a management fee and other charges and expenses and, in doing so, has conflicts of interest with the company; valued, priced for sale and redemption, physically held and traded in securities markets pursuant to computational, custody and brokerage and other transactional requirements peculiar to such a portfolio of investment securities; and overseen by the company’s board of directors that is elected, constituted and governed pursuant to specified standards developed in the context of such a portfolio of investment securities.

The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act and is not required to register under that Act. Consequently, Shareholders do not have the regulatory protections afforded to investors in registered investment companies.

Shareholders do not have the rights enjoyed by investors in certain other financial instruments.

As interests in a grantor trust, the Shares have none of the statutory rights normally associated with the ownership of shares of a business corporation, including, for example, the right to bring “oppression” or “derivative” actions. Apart from the rights afforded to them by federal and state securities laws, Shareholders have only those rights relative to the Trust, the Trust property and the Shares that are set forth in the Depositary Trust Agreement. In this connection, the Shareholders have limited voting and distribution rights. They do not have the right to elect directors. See “Description of the Shares” for a description of the limited rights of the Shareholders.

http://fulfillment.cfgweb.com/showpdf-sku.cfg?clientcode=rdx&sku=R-FXE-1

Reuters wrote this one, but I liked it also. I agree that Treasuries are set up for a fall.

I am behind both major long term trends of alternative energy and commodities.

I have trouble buying penny stocks on microcaps at their 52 week lows though. I like the h&s bottom working just under $0.50, but the stock is well below any technical buy points. Your argument above is solid, but it really takes a leap of faith to buy the stock. I’m not saying ACI, BTU or even KOL look much better at this point, but at least the risk of manipulation and vaporization are much lower. JRCC is actually shaping up to be the best high risk choice for me here.

Why hasn’t this company been purchased by one of the majors? Why aren’t Soros and Citadel buying it outright?

Company: Rentech

Ticker: RTK

Company Snapshot: Rentech is composed of two business segments each focusing on a major global issue, alternative green energy and fertilizer production. Rentech’s alternative energy segment is one of the world’s leading synthetic fuels technology and development companies. Over the last twenty-five years, Rentech has developed and patented the Rentech Process, an advanced version of the well-established Fischer-Tropsch process. The Rentech Process can convert a wide array of carbon-bearing materials, including green resources such as biomass and municipal solid waste, into ultra clean fuels and chemicals ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline. Rentech’s objective is to help the world reduce its dependency on oil and lower emissions, including greenhouse gases. Rentech’s second business segment is their fertilizer plant Rentech Energy Midwest Corp. -REMC-, located in East Dubuque, IL. REMC is one of the country’s largest nitrogen manufacturers producing nitrogen-based fertilizer products and industrial nitrogen products.

Recommendation: Buy

Recommendation Date: Friday, November 21, 2008 at .50 cents per share

Recommendation Results:
** Friday, November 21, 2008: UP 8.00%
** Monday, November 24, 2008: UP 12.96%
** Tuesday, November 25, 2008: DOWN -1.72%
** Wednesday, November 26, 2008: UP 3.42%
*** Since Date of Recommendation: UP 24.00%

________________________________________________________________________________
On Friday, November 21, 2008 we recommended Rentech (Ticker: RTK) with a buy rating at .50 cents a shares. Since then a few positive and significant developments have taken place.

* November 22, 2008 Indiana and Illinois announce they are pursuing major clean coal power projects. Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan has announced a measure that will create 2 clean coal projects including a $2.5-billion plant near Taylorville, Illinois. That plant comes in the wake of another $2 billion coal gasification project in southern Indiana.
http://www.wthitv.com/dpp/news/news_wthi_Indiana_and_Illinois_Clean_Coal_200811212155

* November 22, 2008 Baard Energy has received its final air permits from the Ohio EPA which in turn allows them to build a coal to liquid plant in Wellsville along the Ohio River. One of the first of its kind. The permit is the third and final state environmental permit necessary for Baard Energy to proceed into final design and construction of the 53,000 barrel-per-day coal/biomass to liquids plant at the Columbiana County Port Authority site in Wellsville. Baard has yet to release who will supply their Fischer-Tropsch technology.
http://www.reviewonline.com/page/content.detail/id/507886.html?nav=5008

* November 22, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama reaffirmed his support for alternative energy. This includes Rentech’s Fischer-Tropsch technology that converts biomass, natural gas, and coal into liquid fuels ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_bi_ge/obama_economy_12;_ylt=Anucx2RdHWzyzTRuGeA1tl0Gw_IE

* November 24, 2008 The US Air Force concluded analysis of the effects of using a natural gas-based synthetic fuel with its Lockheed Martin F-22, as work to trial the technology accelerates through its trainer, transport and fighter fleets. The office of the assistant secretary of the air force for installations, environment and logistics is expected to select a private partner during December to develop a Fischer-Tropsch production facility at Malmstrom AFB, Montana.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/24/319113/us-air-force-completes-f-22-synthetic-fuel-trials.html

________________________________________________________________________________
As of Friday, November 21, 2008 for an Aggressive short-term trade we like Rentech at these current levels. Rentech will release fiscal year 2008 financial statements December 16, 2008. Rumor has it these numbers will be very positive.

Rentech’s stock price has been down significantly along with everyone else:
15 days down –43%
45 days down –62%
65 days down –79%

The last time Rentech hit .46 cents a share was October 27, 2008 and the stock proceeded to rally .43 cents to .87 cents. An 89 percent increase in 7 days. Since March of this year a 40 to 80 percent fluctuation in price has been common and we look for this type of volatility to continue. Rentech could easily exceed a $1.20 per share before year-end based on a number of reasons.

Rentech’s management is currently in a pickle. The stock has dropped significantly and the officers of the company need results ASAP if they want to be able to justify their year-end bonuses. In addition, all stock options are underwater including those belonging to the board of directors. As we have seen in the past, Rentech actively manages their stock price by issuing press reports before releasing their latest financial numbers. Only to be followed with additional press releases over the coming weeks, all in an attempt to influence the stock price. One news release could easily move Rentech’s stock price .50-.60 cents like it has done so many times in the past. Two or more press releases could be very significant.

Press releases for Rentech’s alternative energy segment could focus on:
* Technology licensing partnerships = Revenue increase
* Revenue and cost sharing relationships = Revenue increase and cost decrease
* New business strategies and directions = Shareholder assurance
* New product sales revenue generated by their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- leading the way to future business opportunities as companies discover value in Rentech’s numerous gas to liquid products = Revenue increase and shareholder assurance
* Continued process improvements at their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- facility in Commerce City, CO = Shareholder assurance

Rentech’s fertilizer plant, Rentech Energy Midwest Corporation -REMC- located in Dubuque IL, is an extremely valuable asset that generates a tremendous amount of cash. The value of this plant alone creates a support at current levels helping to reduce downside risk. Rentech currently has 166 million shares outstanding and their fertilizer plant alone is valued between 120-210 million. A quick back of the envelope calculation, 122/166 and 210/166, suggests a stock price between .73 to $1.27.

Rentech recently reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for their fertilizer plant and there’s a good chance Rentech will post a net income, something they haven’t done in years. Moving from a net loss to a net income would be a significant event and I think the street HAS NOT priced this into the stock. Last quarter Rentech successfully completed their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- that converts natural gas into various petroleum based products like jet fuel and diesel gasoline. The completion of the PDU means a reduction in expenses. Combine reduced expenses with record fertilizer sales revenue, coming from greater demand for corn that is used in the production of ethanol based fuels, could translate to a positive earnings per share. Management needs a homerun if they want to justify year-end bonuses; there’s an incentive for them to be aggressive. Shareholders are less likely to be pissed off when they hear about seven figure total compensation packages when the stock is trading at $3.15 versus .50 cents a share. Again, management has a strong incentive to move this stock and all stock options are currently underwater.

Press releases for Rentech’s fertilizer segment could focus on:
* Record fertilizer sales revenue growth for fiscal year 2008
* Very favorable EBITDA guidance for 2009
* Favorable asset valuation discussion of their fertilizer plant

As reported at Mutual Fund Facts About Individual Stocks -MFFAIS- the overall number of institutional owners has recently increased 20 percent from 81 to its current level of 97. This is very positive.
Institutions adding to an already existing position include:
Goldman Sachs added 825,221 shares
Vanguard Group added 5,662,885 shares
Barclays Global Investors added 1,918,971 shares
Credit Suisse added shares
Putnam added shares
Oppenheimer added shares
Northern Trust added shares
Bank of New York Mellon added shares
Bank of America added shares
Wells Fargo added shares

There’s a large short position, I believe 8-9 million shares and it’s probably a safe assumption that these sellers are in the money since Rentech is currently near 52-week lows. If Rentech’s stock price does move quickly, press releases and an overall market rally, we could see short sellers add to the buying as they lock in profits. This 1-2 combo could move Rentech’s stock price in excess of .40 cents a share.

Because of a crisis in confidence the major indices, DJIA and S&P 500, have seen a record setting retreat in the last 30 days, especially in the last 7, and the market is due for a 1,200-point rally. This alone could move Rentech’s stock price .30 cents a share.

I have some great wealth building tips of my own coming on the new site. Stock trading systems I have developed over the last decade plus of market watching and trading. Yes, we made money this year too! I am still long gold from $550 and I was short financial stocks when they collapsed. I’m not a genius, I just pay attention and make independent decisions based on what I see. I don’t live in New York and I’ve never worked on “The Street”. It’s amazing what you can see when you look at the whole picture.

If you’re an investor, I have some great trading systems going on the new site. We just booked 10% using options as the market crumbled over the last three weeks. I’m giving it all away for free and no advertising either. I must say I have enjoyed watching Wall Street disappear. I just wish they wouldn’t have taken the rest of us with them.

Tom Humes

RYH – Rydex Equal Weight Healthcare

IXJ – iShares Global Healthcare

JJA – iPath Dow Jones-AIG Agriculture Total Return ETN

KOL – Market Vectors Coal

GAZ – iPath Dow Jones-AIG Natural Gas Total Return ETN

IYT – iShares DJ Transportation Average

ICF – Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index

DVY – iShares DJ Select Dividend Index

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap Index

We are also taking new positions in the following:

BBH – Biotech HOLDRs

IAT – iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks

I blame President Bush for forcing Greenspan’s hand to keep rates low during the last election cycle.

Who can forget Bush’s campaign slogan of “record home ownership”?

I blame Greenspan for playing politics to ensure his last confirmation.

I blame the SEC for eliminating the uptick rule, which was put in place after the last depression.

I blame Congress for repealing the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, another depression era law designed to separate investment banking from commercial banking.

I blame the citizens of the US for electing such morons and for living beyond their means since WWII.

We are all in this together, but it’s not like it was invisible. I first alerted clients to this issue in 2005.

To blame short sellers for “discovering” the problem is not American. If these companies were not vulnerable, they would have not had any problems.

I think the US govt should sue to recover all pay earned by these managements in the last 5 years. Let’s get to the root of the problem, incentives and pay structure.

Wall Street and mutual funds exist entirely to take money from their clients. This model would not survive in any industry.

IYT – iShares DJ Transportation Average

ICF – Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index

DVY – iShares DJ Select Dividend Index

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap Index

Overall we were down just over 5% before commissions for the four months. The S&P 500 dropped over 11% during this time. Even with the losses in the end, we were able to beat the S&P 500 by over two to one. It helps when you make almost 7.5% in the first four weeks and book an average gain over 18% on your first 8 closed trades.

A shorter holding time, as we use in the Security Growth Alert, would have helped this set of trades immensely. We were looking to develop a longer holding period portfolio here, but the market did not cooperate. This is not an investor’s market as the hyperactivity only leaves small windows of profit for the most agile of traders.

CF -28.4%

One of the reasons I bother to cut and paste instead of link.

I’ve had many things disappear; some get shorter playing time than others.

ITU -19.9% (after split, including dividends)

UBB -21.3%

IPI -25.2%

MOS -27.5% (including dividend)

POT -22.2% (including dividend)

NOG -31.6%

PBR -25.2%

RIG -22.9%

MEA -16.1%

LNN -25.1% (including dividends)

MON -2.5%

SQM -2.4%

BBD -20.8%

SKF – UltraShort (2X) Financials ProShares

The Russell 2000 has has been up 12% since 7/13/2008 compared to 6% for the Nasdaq, and 4% for the S&P, and Dow as, it is comprised of small US companies highly influenced by the finanical sector which rose on July 14, 2008 as the yen carry traders sold oil and bought the banks.

The EUR/JPY has turned down, and just today the USD/JPY turned down.

Lacking liquidity from investing long via 0.5% interest loans from the Bank of Japan disivenstment will be coming out of all stocks globally.

The yen carry traders will be selling the financial sector to take profit and the Russell 2000 shares will fall rapidly.

CCC +13.2%

We’ll also drop another one at flat.

INSU -0.8%

Long term holders or those with large positions may want to hold some open as there is a good chance we will come back to these again later.

SGY -30.2%

Ag/Commodity – CF, IPI, MON, SQM

Cost basis now under $10.

VISN +34.2%

ENB +1.4% (including dividend)

MTL -30.0% (including dividend)

Taking a few more profits.

TWI +7.5%

WGOV (again) +26.1%

And trimming the energy exposure with a few losses.

CRZO -20.4%

XTO -22.4%

We still like all of these stocks.

Not being greedy with the profits.

Surprised by the rapid deterioration in energy stocks.

For those looking to add positions consider:

Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN

Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB

China (Olympics) – VISN

Alternative Energy – WGOV

Accumulate on weakness:

Oil & Gas – ATW, CRZO, ENB, PBR, RIG, SGY, XTO

Ag/Commodity – MEA, MOS, MTL, POT, TWI (having a great week!)

Did you see I added NOG yesterday? I’m thinking their wells will have a potentially bigger impact on the bottom line. Only $400M market cap on NOG; CLR over $13B already! CLR market cap has jumped $10B in just over a year!

The public chart list gets updated daily. I adjust the comments as necessary and place notations on the charts themselves. This is more of a slow moving, overall look at the market. The comments tend to develop over time and look forward, so they aren’t materially changing each day. I am going to start noting the date on specific changes or signals going forward. But the overall tone is definitely longer term than the specific trading systems.

Say I was looking at your public charts list. Your comments are intresting, but no date as to when you made them.

Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN

Oil & Gas – CRZO, ENB, PBR, RIG, XTO

Ag/Commodity – MOS, MTL, POT

Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB

China (Olympics) – VISN

NOG – Bakken

Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN

Oil & Gas – PBR, RIG

Ag/Commodity – MOS, MTL

Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB

China (Olympics) – VISN

ATW +20.4%

NGS +16.8%

MEA + 27.9%

All great charts that may go much higher yet; but I’ll be patient and take the lower risk gains for now. As before, long term holders or those with large positions may want to hold some of the positions open as there is a very good chance we will come back to these again later.

Water Plays – CCC, INSU, LNN

Oil & Gas – ATW, PBR, RIG

Ag/Commodity – MEA, MTL

Brazilian Banks – BBD, ITU, UBB

China (Olympics) – VISN

NWPX +18.8%

CLR +30.2%

KOG +36.5%

WGOV +14.8%

NWPX – Pipes +4.11%

CCC – Purification +13.15%

INSU – Pipe rehab -1.25%

LNN – Irrigation for Agriculture +13.85%

CLR – Bakken +44%

KOG – Bakken +16.72%

ENB – Canadian oil pipeline +5.46%

NGS – Nat Gas Service Equip (non-conventional production) +21%

SGY – US Oil & Gas Producer -1.81%

XTO – Oil & Gas Producer +4.08%

CRZO – Barnett Shale +6.07%

ATW – Deep water driller +2.73%

RIG – Deep water driller -6.32%

PBR – Brazilian Oil Producer +9.29%

MEA – Scrap Metal Recycler +7.59%

TWI – Ag Equipment +11.11%

MOS – Fertilizer +13.33%

POT – Fertilizer +12.58%

MTL – Russian Mining/Steel +4.73%

ITU – Brazilian Bank +2.44%

UBB – Brazilian Bank -4.54%

BBD – Brazilian Bank -1.72%

ELMG – Wireless Communications/Defense -8.87%

VISN – Chinese Mass Transit Ads +1.2%

WGOV – Turbine and Electrical Controls for Generation via Wind/Steam +15.70%